With Aaron Judge on the cusp of breaking what many believe to be the “clean” record of 61 home runs in a season, ticket prices in the Bronx are soaring. The data, though, reveal a near-sightedness in fans’ purchasing habits.
According to Sportico’s analysis, Judge has a roughly 35% chance of hitting a homer to break the record on Friday night, with calculations based on his full-season pace of homering about once in every 11 plate appearances. Multiply the 65% chance he doesn’t reach the milestone tonight, however, by the 35% chance he hits a home run in any given game, and you end up with a 23% chance that the record-breaking dinger will come during Saturday’s game—a significant probability.
Based on secondary-market ticket pricing only, you would think it’s a guarantee that Judge wiil hit his 62nd home run on Friday. Looking at the Yankees’ three-game homestand against the Baltimore Orioles, the cheapest ticket price for the Friday night game is up 66% on TicketIQ since Judge hit No. 61 on Wednesday night, while pricing for the Saturday and Sunday games are up just 5% and 4%, respectively, as of noon EST.
If you want to attend the Yankees' game on Friday and sit in left field, where Judge’s last home run landed, you have to shell out no less than $77 for a ticket. Alternatively, if you want to display your understanding of basic probability and the concept of delayed gratification, you could snag a seat in the left field grandstand for Saturday at just $26. (There is a strong chance of rain in New York this weekend; if the games are postponed, buyers could always resell their tickets if they’re unable to make a rescheduled game.)
Finally, whether or not Yankees fans want to admit it, there is a small chance Judge doesn’t reach No. 62 at all this season. If that possibility came to fruition, the fan who just barely missed catching No. 61 would likely be kicking himself even more than he already is.