There’s a supply-and-demand problem in the National Hockey League.
Of the 605 skaters who have been on the ice for at least 300 minutes this season, 369 (61%) shoot left-handed, while just 236 (39%) shoot right-handed. “As kids grow up, I believe there are more right-handed shooters now than there’s ever been, but I think back in the day everyone got handed a lefty stick, so that’s just where it stems from,” Arizona Coyotes general manager Bill Armstrong said.
The supply of right-handed players is limited, but the demand is high, especially when it comes to defensemen. “There have been a lot of studies on how it’s statistically worse to play two left-handed defensemen together,” Stathletes Inc. co-founder and data scientist Meghan Chayka said.
The advantage of pairing a right-handed defenseman with a left-handed defenseman is that each can play on his strong side. Even with the shortage of righties available to play on the right side, NHL teams usually avoid playing left-handed defensemen on their off side. Among 151 left-handed defensemen who have played at least 10 games, only 15 have had a higher percentage of events on their off side than their strong side, per Stathletes.
“In a perfect world, as a GM designs a team, it’s a lefty and a righty, but that doesn’t really happen in reality due to injuries, and when you’re drafting and what’s available to you,” Armstrong said. “Then you put in a size factor, and say you’re looking for a 6-foot-4 right-handed shot defenseman that can do it all, and you become limited in your search.”
When there’s a scarcity of anything, there’s bound to be a premium paid for it. Right-handed defensemen with at least 300 minutes of time on ice this season earn an average salary of $3.70 million, per Spotrac, while left-handed shooters at the same position earn a much lower average of $3.25 million. The right-handed cohort performs slightly better in statistics such as goals and Hockey Reference’s point shares metric, but not enough to fully explain the pay gap.
“There is 100% a premium out there right now for right-shot defensemen,” agent and Octagon hockey co-managing director Allan Walsh said. “In any discussion with their club, the fact that a player is a right shot as opposed to a left shot is part of the discussion.”
There are more left-handed defensemen overall, but seven of the top 10 highest-paid defensemen on an annual basis are right-handed shooters. In contrast, just three of the top 10 highest-paid forwards are right-handed shooters.
Someone like the San Jose Sharks’ right-handed defenseman Erik Karlsson, who makes $11.5 million per year, merits the premium pay. He leads all defensemen by a wide margin with 66 points this season. Even if you don’t have Karlsson on your team, though, the analytics still indicate that you want one of your two starting defensemen to be a right-handed player.
The most obvious issue for defensemen playing on their off side is the ability to receive the puck. In the neutral and offensive zones, pass reception rate drops from 88.1% to 84.2% when defenders play on their off side.
“It’s just the way the puck is moved from one defenseman to the other,” Armstrong said. “When you receive it on your backhand, it’s just a harder place, and it limits your options.”
This difficulty in controlling the puck spills over to the defensive side, where expected goals against per 60 minutes increases from 2.19 to 2.23 when same-handed pairs play together. This can also be attributed to more shot attempts against and lower success rates on zone denials.
Perhaps the greatest value of right-handed defensemen, however, is borne out in one stat: shot quality in the offensive zone, which is actually enhanced by skaters playing on their off side. Last season, defensemen on their off side averaged 1.86 expected goals per 100 shot attempts, compared to 1.18 from the strong side.
Despite average shot quality increasing from the off side, overall expected goals do not increase when pairs of two lefty defensemen play together. One reason is because on power plays, teams can move right-handed defensemen to the left side of the ice and lefties to the right, allowing both players to take shots more easily from the middle of the ice.
In a power play, therefore, it is especially beneficial to have at least one righty shooter on the ice. “There’s a scarcity of good right shot defensemen across the league, but where you see the hottest interest and the greatest premium attached is for those that can also play on a power play,” Walsh said.
The Los Angeles Kings’ second-year defenseman Sean Durzi, whom Walsh represents, is one of only two righty defensemen with a higher percentage of events occurring on the left side this season. The Kings have deployed him there this year due to a surplus of right-handed defensemen on the roster, and to unleash Durzi’s powerful one-timer on offense. He ranks in the 83rd percentile in points per 60 minutes among defensemen and, at only 24 years old, could be highly coveted in the near future for his ability to play both sides.
Not every team has multiple capable right-handed defensemen on their bench, which is why there are still several lefty-lefty defensive pairings. “The NHL has a hard cap, so if you’re overpaying for a right-handed defenseman, then you’re not able to spend in other areas,” Chayka said. “Different managers have different styles of what they like to value, how they play and how they coach, and that all factors into what makes sense.”
Due to the scarcity of right-handers, decisions are sometimes made out of necessity rather than preference, such as forcing a left-handed player to play on the right side. “If you can’t find a right-handed defenseman, is a left-handed defenseman who can play the right side more valuable?” Armstrong said. “It is, because a lot of GMs ask that question in trades: Can the lefty play his off side? That comes up very frequently.”
